Monday, December 8, 2014

Winners & Losers

Throughout the term, there has been a consistent theme in our discussions: with a macroeconomic change, there will be winners and there will be losers. Initially we talked about this concept on a broader scope and reviewed Wolf and Stiglitz's perception of the win/loss relationship as it relates to globalization. Wolf acknowledges that some developing countries have not exactly benefitted from globalization, but reminds readers to reflect on the worse conditions in the past. Globalization, however, is not the only political/ economic trend producing winners and losers. In fact, I've applied this concept to a majority of current events/ news articles, and expanded upon the idea by constantly asking "what if" or questioning "the other side".

The plummeting price of oil is a current and perfect example of winners and losers resulting from an economic change. Obviously, oil importers see this as a positive opportunity, while exporters mourn over lost profit. Importers=winners, exporters=losers. The question: which effect is stronger? Will this result in a global net gain or loss? I came across an article in the Wall Street Journal that outlined the win/ loss relationship in the oil price drop, and even offered a hypothesis to my question.
While most oil price drops have been associated with economic downturns and recession, economists are saying that this time is different. According to IMF MD Christine Lagarde, "There will be winners and losers, but on a net-to-net basis, it's good news for the global economy." Researchers estimate that the price decline could add almost 1 percentage point to global growth over the next 2 quarters. The picture below quantifies the wins and losses...



I'm still not fully convinced: if oil price declines have been associated with economic downturns in the past, then why is this time so different? The article says, "part of the boost comes from lower transportation and manufacturing costs, particularly for energy-intensive industries such as airlines and steelmaking. The primary benefit is more cash in consumers' wallets as they spend less of their paychecks fueling their vehicles, spurring more consumer spending." This makes sense, but I don't see how this is different than previous major oil price declines; wouldn't a boost in consumer spending happen every time? The Wall Street Journal explained that the difference partially results from the supply/ demand ratio for oil, with a higher percentage attributed to supply causes. However, JP Morgan predicts a much narrower margin, or lower ratio, between the two causes, suggesting uncertainty in the accuracy of this ratio. Also, as Rosenberg explained, one reason the US is having trouble reaching the inflation target is because of the falling commodity prices. The world is experiencing slow growth, with continued deflationary pressures in Europe, Japan in a recession and loosened monetary policy in China in response to its "worrisome" slow growth in the 3rd quarter. While I want to be optimistic about the global impact of oil price declines, I can't help but to be curious. I wonder if maybe this growth statistic is overstated, shielding us from the overall weak global economic conditions and issues, especially in key regions/nations, and from historical trends in oil price drops/economic downturns. We've heard on numerous accounts that deflation should be treated as vigorously as inflation, and these oil prices reflect global deflationary trends. So, how optimistic should we be? Why are we ignoring the past?  In the words of Richard Clarida, "The US is the best student in a very mediocre class."



Wednesday, December 3, 2014

WTO Conference Lexington, 2014: On Behalf of the World Bank Group

To begin, I’d like to highlight some of the World Bank Group’s most recent successes in nations and regions present at the Whirled Trade Organization’s Lexington Round Meetings:
  • As of November 2014, the Bank’s $180 million IBRD infrastructure loan to four cities in China significantly strengthened the capacity for urban planning to create a better urban environment for more than 3 million people.
  • In June, a $100 million Floods Emergency Recovery Project was approved to aid those most affected by the worst flooding recorded in history in Bosnia.
  • Over past two decades, the World Bank has contributed over $1.4 billion in financing for rural water supply and sanitation in India, and about 24 million people in have benefited from these programs.
  • In Brazil, the World Bank has given technical and financial support to a program reaching 13 million impoverished families who have never benefited from social programs.
  • The World Bank's, more specifically the IDA’s, largest contributions lie in the African Union. The IDA’s chief goal is poverty reduction by providing concessional loans and grants to programs that boost economic growth and ultimately improve living conditions. Between 2003-2013, the IDA provided $66 billion in financing for projects in Sub-Saharan Africa and between 2005 and 2008, the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day fell by 9 million. [1]

This worker takes a break from weeding peppers on Sudo Forto's farm. Since receiving assistance from the World Bank in 2010, Forto has expanded his operations and hopes to employee more people soon. (Bosnia)

Newly constructed sewer interceptors and pipelines along the Jinsha River  (China)



 As a representative of The World Bank Group, I would like to speak on behalf of the International Development Association (IDA), the sector of the World Bank that helps the world’s poorest countries. To be eligible for such funds, countries must meet the following criteria: 1) Relative poverty defined at GNI per capita $1,215 or below (2015), 2) Lack creditworthiness to borrow on market terms [1]. To put definitions in perspective, the US’s most recent GNI per capita measure stands at $53,960. While the IDA processes are important to understanding the branch’s functionality, in the interest of timing and objectives, I will not go into great detail. Rather, I would like to address points III and IV on the WTO agenda.

The IDA and World Bank agree that NTBs, especially in the areas of agriculture, that are prohibited include those technical trade barriers that are not demonstrated to be unsafe for human consumption. I’d like to reiterate the conditions of those least developed countries, which have limited capital and resources, and furthermore are unable to repay loans with near-zero interest rates. According to research done by the WTO in 2002, unfair First World (trade) barriers have cost developing countries US$700 billion a year in lost export earnings [5]. Unfair restrictions qualify as those products that are not fully proven to be unsafe. Trade restrictions like these are disadvantageous to developing countries because these barriers are frequently applied to products where developing countries have a comparative advantage, such as agriculture. The process behind deeming products unsafe remains somewhat ambiguous, and perhaps requires a more leveled, transparent method. If these discriminations are unmanaged or unrestricted, the World Bank will be hindered from reaching its main goal of extreme poverty reduction.

Regarding point IV, my initial concern results from the wording of the statement. While it reads, “no member nation shall provide direct subsidies or financial support…”, I would like to establish and ensure that this will not extend to aid and development institutions such as the World Bank. Concerning the vague statement “financial support”, the World Bank’s capital consists of reserves built and money paid from 188 of member country shareholders. The IDA’s funds are replenished every three years by 40 donor countries [1]. Most importantly, I’d like to clarify that this “financial support” is not misinterpreted to include the donations made by the World Bank’s shareholders and donors, since they are in fact, “nations”.  In closing, the World Bank would like to stress that its main objectives should be highlighted and kept in mind by all member nations: to end extreme poverty and decrease “the percentage of people living with less than $1.25 a day to no more than 3 percent globally by 2030”, and to “foster income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population in every country”. [1]



Annotated Bibliography: 
The World Bank’s website provides the objectives for each branch of the bank, and results for each region. I used this to search projects and results for each region or nation.

2. Tutwiler, M. Ann & Straub, M., “Making Agricultural Trade Reform Work for the Poor”, International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council, 2005.

This source focuses on the World Bank’s ultimate goal of poverty alleviation by specifically addressing agricultural trade. While the authors acknowledge that aid alone cannot bring development and full poverty reduction for developing countries, they stress the need to eliminate non-tariff trade barriers in agricultural trade. Both developed and developing countries must eliminate these trade barriers.

Concluding quote: “To ensure that trade reform is pro-poor, the key is not to seek additional exemptions from trade disciplines for developing countries, but to ensure that the WTO agreement is strong and effective in disciplining subsidies and reducing barriers to trade by all countries.”

3. NON-TARIFF MEASURES TO TRADE: Economic and Policy Issues
for Developing Countries
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE STUDIES, United Nations Publication, 2013.

This publication summarizes the impacts of non-tariff trade barriers in trade liberalization. It provides definitions to relative terms (NTBs), their basic framework and more importantly, the implications of NTBs between developing countries.

4. Mold, Andrew. “Non-Tariff Barriers – Their Prevalence and Relevance for African Countries”, African Trade Policy Centre, 2005.

This article provides a case study for the implications of NTBs on low-developed countries. According to their research, NTBs is a prevalent inter-regional problem. I plan to use this publication to discuss the impacts of NTBs established by industrialized countries on LDCs (in Africa) and the impacts of NTBs within a region of LDCs.
Quote: “Finally, African countries are not only victims of the growing prevalence of NTBs – they are also prone to using NTBs themselves to keep out exports of other African countries. The paper argues that African countries apply NTBs in a way that deeply damages the prospects for intra-regional trade.”

5. World Trade Organization, “Trade liberalisation statistics.”

This summarizes research done by the World Trade Organization. It includes the World Bank as a primary source. According to a world bank study, the elimination of FW-favoring trade barriers systematically approved by us would lift 300 million people out of poverty. An extension of World Bank research, in relation to this article, can be found at:

6. The World Bank, “Knowledge in Development Note: Trade for Development, 2009.

This goes into more detail/ examples about the implications of unfair trade restrictions imposed on developing countries.
“Moreover, an anti-agricultural bias prevails in the sense that if all goods markets globally were freed up, agricultural value added in developing countries would not only increase absolutely, but also relative to non-agricultural GDP. Since most of the poor in the world are developing country farmers, such a move would be a major contribution to poverty reduction globally.”