POL214 op-ed 2: Putin is not insecure

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin solidified his hunger for control by invading Ukraine and disregarding attempts to fix a heavily suffering economy. Blaming the West for Putin’s aggressive actions simply evades his responsibility for disrupting international order.

Putin’s main goals include hindering NATO’s expansion / stopping Ukraine’s inclusion and perhaps reconstituting the Soviet Union. His aggressive persistence and strict prioritization of geo-political influence no longer puts Putin on the defensive.

The notable drop in oil prices over the last few months and the tightening of economic sanctions has stripped Russia of billions in budget revenue and exiled them from some of the world’s largest capital markets. The ruble’s dramatic decline to historic lows in December forced Russia’s Central Bank to hike up interest rates by 6.5 percent, putting it over 16 percent higher than the United State’s current market interest rate.

Putin’s prioritization of Ukraine over an alarmingly suffering Russian economy overshadows arguments for Putin’s insecurity. According to Russian supporters, the US and its European allies are to blame for Russia’s pushback in Ukraine. Putin has emphasized that NATO’s enlargement and the West’s backing of pro-democracy movements in Ukraine threaten Russia’s core strategic interests.  Supporters recognize Putin’s fear that NATO would host a naval base in Crimea, motivating his actions to annex the peninsula.

Despite signing peace deals in Minsk in September 2014 and February 2015, Russia continues to overrun Ukrainian troops, break ceasefires and endure fighting. As of this month, over 6,000 people have been killed in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. Senator John Kerry reiterated the US and EU’s united diplomatic stances on Russia-Ukraine in a less-than-amicable meeting with Russia’s Foreign Minister.

Putin’s reactions to the economic sanctions are tenacious, not timid, in tone. After one Minsk summit, Putin responded, “I want to remind you that Russia is one of the most powerful nuclear nations…our partners should always be aware that no matter in which condition their governments may be or which foreign policy concepts they may pursue, it is better not to come against Russia as regards a possible armed conflict.”

While it is reasonable to see Ukraine’s attempts to move further west as potentially threatening to Russia, Putin’s characterization as completely fearful and insecure is misleading. Instead, he has instigated a powerful and comparably stable group of US-EU allies to impose harsh economic sanctions, further crumbling the Russian economy. Putin could take steps to ease these sanctions through negotiations, but he chooses to continue to exacerbate conditions in Ukraine and his own country. If Putin were truly fearful, would he let his country reach the brink of a recession, solely to keep Ukraine at least neutral? Is NATO to blame for Putin’s desire for control?

Since 1999, Russia’s GDP per capita doubled, providing Putin with an economic cushion and a sense of legitimacy. After being accustomed to Putin’s trend of economic success, it will be interesting to observe citizens’ reactions to the harsh realities of sanctions.  Large banks controlled by three friends of Putin have seen about $640 million of assets frozen in the US, Putin slashed Kremlin salaries and international reserves fell by 25 percent. Regardless, Putin has not abandoned his violent agenda in Ukraine and tolerates a distressing economy.

Obama and the EU continue to discuss expanding economic sanctions, but the impact of this stick-based method will depend on Putin’s persistence. Characterizing Putin as merely insecure and defensive to NATO and the West shields his unrelenting approach. If Putin were so insecure, he would be frightened that his once growing economy has touched record lows. He would not risk approval and financial capabilities by choking his economy in order to obtain a sliver of Europe. Instead, he has hastily reacted to Ukraine’s yearning for independence.

After breaking two peace agreements, watching sanctions aid a plunging ruble and reaching the edge of recession, Putin maintains his assertiveness. By portraying Putin as apprehensive, Russian supporters point blame towards NATO, who simply endorse the Ukraine acting freely. The West is not at fault for the 6,000 lives lost in the Ukrainian conflict, but Putin’s forceful approach is.